CDC Covid Statistics - Island of Sanity

Science

# CDC Covid Statistics

Here are some interesting statistics. Make of them what you will.

According to the government's Centers for Disease Control, as of August 6, 2021, 613,658 Americans have died from Covid. COVID Data Tracker

Also according to the CDC's statistics, deaths from almost all other causes are down.

According to the CDC, here are the number of Americans who have died from all causes since 2014. For each row of this chart, the death count is from the CDC. Beside that I put the US population that year according to the US Census Bureau, and then I calculate deaths per thousand.

Year Population (millions) Deaths (millions) Death Rate (per thousand)
2014 318 2.626 8.26
2015 321 2.713 8.45
2016 323 2.744 8.50
2017 325 2.814 8.66
2018 327 2.839 8.68
2019 328 2.855 8.70
2020 330 2.913 8.83

If you're a more visual person and prefer a graph:

Note that the death rate in 2018 was 8.68 per thousand, while in 2019 it was 8.70 and in 2020 8.83. An obvious theory would be that the death rate went up because of Covid -- though one might point out that the death rate has been steadily rising for years. (Exaclty why is a question for another time. Aging population? Increasingly bad health habits? Etc.) But let's suppose that the increase in the death rate is because of Covid. Then if Covid had never happenned, the death rate in 2019 and 2020 would have been (about) the same as the death rate in 2018. If that had been the case, how many Americans would have died? Easy enough to calculate. Then we can calculate how many people died in 2019 and 2020, MORE than the number who would have died if the 2018 death rate had continued.

Year Population Actual Death Rate Actual Deaths 2018 Death Rate Deaths if 2018 Death Rate Extra Deaths
2019 328 8.70 2.855 8.68 2.848 .007
2020 330 8.83 2.913 8.68 2.865 .048

So now we can draw a graph of how many deaths there would have been without Covid, compared to how many there were with Covid.

That is, if the total death rate in 2019 had been the same as the total death rate in 2018, then 7,000 fewer Americans would have died. If the total death rate in 2020 had been the same as the total death rate in 2018, then 48,000 fewer Americans would have died. The total "extra deaths" for 2019 and 2020 is therefore 55,000.

To put it another way, according to CDC statistics, if Covid had never happened, about 55,000 fewer Americans would have died. That's assuming the death rate stayed at 2018 levels. If the death rate had continued to rise, as it had been rising for the last few years, the difference would be less.

But the CDC says that over 600,000 Americans died from Covid.

Hmm.